Nairobi: Results from an opinion poll conducted by Research 8020 indicate that Fred Matiang’i, Paul Ongili Owino (Babu Owino), and Uhuru Kenyatta lead in popularity. The results show that Kenya’s youngest voters could soon reshape the country’s political future seeing that Generation Z now makes up more than half of the eligible voting population.
According to Kenya News Agency, the quantitative telephone survey, conducted across all 47 counties between September 25 and October 16, 2025, captured views from 3,430 respondents aged 18 years and above. The survey, which was self-funded by Research 8020, achieved a margin of error of 1.67 percent, indicating a high level of accuracy.
Presenting the findings, Antone Ndirangu, the Director of Research 8020, said the study sought to understand how Kenyans feel about the country’s current direction, key national challenges, and emerging political preferences. Nationally, 61 percent of Kenyans said the country is headed in the wrong direction compared to 19 percent who felt it was on the right track, while 20 percent were undecided.
When broken down by generation, Ndirangu said that 57 percent of Generation Z, 64 percent of millennials, and 63 percent of Generation X and older respondents agreed that Kenya is on the wrong path. ‘Counties such as Uasin Gishu, Garissa, Tana River, Mandera, and Kajiado recorded higher optimism, saying the country was headed in the right direction. In contrast, Nyeri at 94 percent, Machakos at 87 percent, and Makueni at 85 percent were among those most critical of the country’s current trajectory,’ highlighted Ndirangu.
He explained that respondents identified the high cost of living and unemployment as the leading challenges facing Kenyans today, each cited by just over half of those surveyed. Other major concerns included poor healthcare, bad roads, corruption, high taxation, and weaknesses in the education system. Smaller but significant portions also mentioned insecurity and food shortages as pressing issues.
‘These results reflect the public’s frustration with economic hardships and governance challenges,’ Ndirangu explained, adding that economic recovery remains the top priority across all generations. Despite growing discontent, Ndirangu said that Kenyans appear more determined than ever to vote.
The survey revealed that 91 percent of respondents intend to participate in the next general election, a sharp rise from the historically low turnout in the last polls. Among the generations, 92 percent of Generation Z, 92 percent of millennials, and 90 percent of Generation X and above said they plan to cast their ballots. With Generation Z accounting for over 11 million potential voters, the report estimates that more than 20 million Kenyans could show up at the polls if these intentions hold.
Ndirangu noted that if Generation Z voters united behind one candidate, they could single-handedly sway the outcome of a presidential election. The poll also measured the likability of leading Kenyan politicians. Former Cabinet Secretary for Interior and Coordination of National Government Fred Okengo Matiang’i emerged as the most liked politician nationally, followed closely by Member of Parliament for Embakasi East Constituency Paul Ongili Owino, former President Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, and Senator for Nairobi County Edwin Watenya Sifuna.
Other leaders with high favourability included Member of Parliament for Kiharu Constituency Ndindi Nyoro, Wiper Party leader Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, and NARC Kenya leader Martha Wangari Karua. Politicians with mid-level ratings, between 43 and 59 percent, included Governor for Siaya County James Orengo, Polycarp Igathe, and several county leaders. Politicians with low likability scores, ranging from 41 to 46 percent, were also recorded, though their names were withheld due to the sensitivity of the data.
When analysed by generation, Paul Ongili Owino led among Generation Z, while Fred Okengo Matiang’i topped both the millennial and Generation X categories. Ndirangu noted that younger Kenyans tend to favour outspoken and relatable leaders, while older voters lean toward candidates with administrative experience and a reputation for discipline.
Paul Ongili Owino’s appeal among Generation Z shows a generational shift in what young Kenyans expect from leadership: authenticity, relatability, and courage. When asked who they would vote for if elections were held today, 24 percent of respondents named Fred Okengo Matiang’i as their preferred presidential candidate, placing him slightly ahead of President William Samoei Ruto, who polled at 21 percent.
Others mentioned included Paul Ongili Owino, Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, David Wakairu Murathe, and Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, though none reached double digits nationally. In terms of perceived suitability, Fred Okengo Matiang’i also led the list of politicians Kenyans would approve to run for president, followed by Paul Ongili Owino and David Wakairu Murathe. Sixty-two percent of respondents said they would still approve of Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta running again if it were constitutionally possible.
The findings underscore a clear shift in Kenya’s political landscape, one driven by the country’s youngest, most technologically aware, and outspoken generation. With Generation Z making up 51 percent of the adult population, Ndirangu highlighted that their voice can no longer be ignored. ‘They are the future of Kenya’s democracy, and that future is already here,’ he stated.