Nairobi: The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released a rainfall advisory, warning of heavy rains in selected regions during the ongoing October-November-December rains. Areas expected to experience the heavy downpour include those in the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and the Highlands both west and east of the Rift Valley.
According to Kenya News Agency, the advisory specifies that the rains are slated to commence on October 23 in the mentioned regions and will expand to the northeastern regions by October 30. The advisory has placed a total of 39 counties on high alert, including Kisumu, Nyeri, Bomet, Isiolo, Nairobi, Turkana, Mandera, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, and Murang’a. The rainfall is anticipated to intensify to more than 30mm in 24 hours, marking the onset of the Short Rains Season (OND) 2025 in several parts of the country, except the southern lowlands and coastal region.
People residing in the listed regions are advised to take precautionary measures to avert possible water-related catastrophes. The advisory has also been shared with emergency response agencies such as the Presidency, Kenya Red Cross, National Disaster Management Operations Center, and National Disaster Management Unit to ensure proper preparedness and response.
The advisory warns that floodwaters may appear in areas where it has not rained heavily, especially downstream. Residents are cautioned against driving through or walking in moving water, and advised to avoid open fields and sheltering under trees and near grilled windows to minimize exposure to lightning strikes. People in landslide-prone areas, particularly in the slopes of Aberdare ranges, Mt Kenya, and other slopes in the western region, should be on high alert.
The KMD had previously announced that the much-awaited October-November-December rains could fall between the third and fourth week of this month, based on a climatic outlook report released on September 29, 2025. This prediction was influenced by models developed from the evolution of global sea surface temperatures, with a 71% probability of the La Nina phenomenon developing between October and December, which is often associated with below-average rainfall.
Despite warmer-than-average temperatures expected for October across most regions, near to above-average rainfall is anticipated in regions such as the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central Rift Valley, the Northwest, and most parts of the Highlands east of the Rift Valley. In contrast, the Southeastern lowlands, southern coast, and some areas of the Northeast and Coastal region are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall.
The expected rainfall is likely to sustain agricultural production in the Highlands west of the Rift Valley and Central and North Rift Valley, although it may disrupt harvesting. Residents are encouraged to take advantage of the downpour by planting trees and engaging in environmental conservation measures, aligning with Kenya’s Mission 15B (Jaza Miti) campaign to plant 15 billion trees and restore degraded landscapes by 2032.
The Jaza Miti initiative, a presidential directive in collaboration with Safaricom, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, and other state ministries, aims to plant 15 billion trees nationwide by 2032.